Agricultural products continue to be weak and volatile
Time:2019-03-28
Raw sugar fluctuated slightly yesterday, boosted by expectations of a decline in Brazilian sugar production. The main contract hit a maximum of 14.77 cents per pound, the lowest fell to 14.54 cents per pound, and the final closing price fell 0.41% to close at 14.76 cents per pound. Sugar production in the main sugarcane producing areas of central and southern Brazil is expected to fall to a three-year low in the next year, due to the lack of replanting to reduce sugarcane yields and increased ethanol production. Kingsman estimates that sugar production in Brazil's central and southern regions will be 33.99 million tons in 2018-19. More than 90% of Brazil's national candy production in the south-central war. This sugar production level means a year-on-year decline of 2.1 million tons, and will be the lowest level since the production of 31.22 million tons in 2015-16. Relatively, the news that the National Reserve dumped the stocks was gradually being digested by the market. Although the sugar price fell again during the day, it lost its lost ground in the afternoon. With reference to the experience of other varieties, we believe that this dump will not affect the mid-term market trend. For short- and medium-term investors, they can wait for the price to stabilize and buy 1801 contracts on dips. In the option investment, for the spot dealers, the reserve option combination operation of rolling out the slightly imaginary call option can be carried out on the basis of the short-term holding of the spot. In the next 1-2 years, the operation of the alternative option combination can be As a booster of spot income, it continues; for value investors, you can also buy a imaginary call option with a strike price of 6,300 to 6,400. After waiting for the price of sugar to rise, the virtual option can be closed. In the previous period, the call option with low strike price continued to buy a new round of imaginary call options (call options with a strike price of 6500 or 6600), and gradually chose to take profit when the price of sugar reached 6,600 yuan/ton.
Cotton and cotton yarn
US cotton continues to fall, domestic cotton pressure callback
ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, as concerns about the potential damage caused by Hurricane Maria to cotton diminished, the market waited for cotton harvesting, and the main ICE December cotton fell 1.05 cents per pound to 68.2 cents per pound. According to the latest data from USDA, the net contract of US cotton in 2017/18 was 63,100 tons in the week of September 14th, an increase of 47,500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 14,600 tons; the shipment was 41,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons, an increase of 0.36 year-on-year. 10,000 tons, the number of contracted shares accounted for 51% of the export forecast (September USDA), higher than the five-year average of 9%; domestically, Zheng cotton and cotton yarn pressureback, the final cotton main contract 1801 closed at 15,415 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton, cotton yarn main 1801 contract closed at 23,210 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton. In terms of reserve cotton rotation, 30024 tons were rotated on the 4th of this week, the actual turnover was 29,460 tons, and the transaction rate was 98.12%. The average transaction price fell 124 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton. On September 22, the planned rotation was 2.68. Ten thousand tons, of which 19,400 tons of Xinjiang cotton. The spot price held steady and the CC Index 3128B reported at 15,974 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream yarn stocks also held steady, with 32 carded yarn price indices of 23,400 yuan/ton and 40 combed yarns with price index of 26,900 yuan/ton. In short, US cotton continued to fall, domestic new flowers gradually listed, short-term Zheng cotton affected by this and maintained shocks, the bullish in the middle and late period, investors can wait for the US cotton to digest and gradually buy on the bargain. At the same time, the spot of cotton yarn has gradually strengthened. We can wait for the cotton yarn to stabilize and then buy it on the bargain.
CBOT soybeans closed up yesterday at 970.6 cents/pu, but the overall situation is still in the box. The weekly export sales report was positive. The export volume of US soybeans in the past week was 2.338 million tons, far higher than the market estimate of 1.2-1.5 million tons. At the same time, USDA announced that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. At present, the market is playing a game between high-yield and high-demand bullish. The US soybeans have entered the harvesting period, with a harvest rate of 4% as of last Sunday, and the excellent rate dropped by 1% to 59% from a week ago. The bearishness of high yields is already in anticipation, and the continued strong demand will support prices. Compared to the previous, we are relatively optimistic about the market. In addition, with the US production landing, the late focus will gradually shift to South American soybean sowing and growth, and the subject of speculation will increase. There has been little change in the domestic sector. Both the port and oil plant soybean stocks declined last week, but they are still at a high level in the same period of history. Last week, the operating rate of oil mills increased to 58.72%. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal increased from 115,000 tons a week to 162,000 tons. The stock of soybean meal in oil plants fell for six consecutive weeks, but it rebounded slightly last week, as of September 17. From 824,900 tons to 837,700 tons. The profit is rich and the stock is stocked before the National Day. This week, the oil plant is expected to continue to keep the high start. The spot transaction and delivery volume increased significantly this week. The daily soybean meal volume was 303,200 tons, the average transaction price was 2819 (+28), and the delivery volume was 79,400 tons. It is expected that the soybean meal will continue to follow the US soybean unilaterally, and the basis will remain stable at the current level.
US soybeans generally oscillated slightly yesterday, subject to strong demand for US soybean exports. The strong US demand after a short-term adjustment in the market will also limit the increase in the ending inventory and the ratio of the balance sheet, and the price may remain weak and shocked until Seasonal harvest before the low point. The horse fell yesterday. In September, the output is expected to recover faster. On the 1st, the horse brown export increased by 20% on the 1st to the 15th, and the export volume to India and the sub-continent has declined. This round of Malay has increased by a high level. The output will recover and the horse will undergo a large adjustment. The fundamental changes in the domestic market are not too big. The palm oil stock is 360,000 tons and the soybean oil is 1.37 million tons. The stocking of the festival has entered the late stage, and the transaction has gradually decreased. The pressure of the late arrival of palm oil in Hong Kong has gradually emerged. Commodity futures continued to fall yesterday, the bearish atmosphere continued, the oil followed weakly, and the operation suggested to wait and see the market atmosphere. After the risk is released completely, it may be considered to intervene in the vegetable oil with strong fundamentals. In addition, after the continuous rise of palm oil, the basis difference is lower, and the value of soybean oil is also relatively high. The probability of recovery in the later period is faster, the horse is also adjusted, and the arbitrage may be considered to intervene in the bean brown or vegetable brown price.
The spot price of domestic corn has declined steadily. The purchase price of corn deep processing enterprises in North China continues to fall, while other regions are stable. The spot price of starch is stable overall, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices by 20-30 yuan/ton. In terms of market news, 29 deep processing enterprises + port starch inventories focused on the world granary rebounded from 161,700 tons last week to 176,900 tons; on September 21, the sub-loan also planned to trade 48,970 tons of temporary storage corn in 2013, the actual transaction 48,953 tons, the average transaction price was 1,335 yuan; the middle storage grain package sales plan transaction in 2014, the storage of corn 903,801 tons, the actual turnover of 755,459 tons, the average transaction price of 1468 yuan. The price of corn and starch fluctuated in early trading, and the market increased slightly in the end. In the later stage of the forecast, considering the current high price of the production area and sales area corresponding to the corn far-month price, it is not conducive to the actual demand and replenishment demand of the new crop corn. Therefore, we maintain a bearish judgment; for starch, taking into account the impact or weakening of environmental inspections, new production capacity will be available before and after the new corn market is launched. We expect long-term supply and demand to improve, combined with corn price expectations, plus As for the potential deep processing subsidy policy, we also believe that the price of distant moon starch is also overestimated. In this case, we recommend that investors consider continuing to hold the previous January corn/starch empty or starch-corn spread arbitrage combination, with a stop high at the end of August.
Zhihua data shows that the national egg prices continue to fall, in which the average price of the main producing areas fell by 0.04 yuan / kg, the average price of the main sales area fell by 0.13 yuan / kg, trade monitoring shows that traders receive goods easily, the goods are slow, trade The overall situation improved slightly from the previous day. The traders' stocks were low, and they continued to rebound slightly from the previous day. Traders' bearish expectations weakened. Among them, the bearish expectations in East China and Southwest China were stronger. The egg price continued to fall in early trading, and gradually rebounded in the afternoon, and closed up sharply. In terms of closing price, the January contract rose by 95 yuan, the May contract rose by 45 yuan, and the September contract was nearing maturity. Analysis of the market can be seen that the spot price of eggs has continued to fall sharply as scheduled, the price decline is relatively less than the spot price, and the futures price has changed to premium. This indicates that the market expectation has changed, that is, from the past, the expectation of the fall of the spot price high has turned to the late Spring Festival. Expectations of the rise, from the performance of the disk, the market is expected to be around 4,000 around the bottom of the January price. In this case, it is recommended that investors wait and see.
According to the pig Yiwang data, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country yesterday was 14.38 yuan/kg, which was 0.06 yuan/kg more than the previous day. The pig price continued to fall and there was no discussion. The news came this morning, and the purchase price of the butchers fell by 0.1 yuan/kg. The price in the northeast has broken 7, and the North China Bureau has also fallen. The mainstream price is 14 yuan/kg. The price of pigs in the East China region has decreased. The prices in other regions except Shandong are still above 14.5 yuan/kg. Henan led the decline in Central China, with a drop of 0.15 yuan/kg. The two lakes are temporarily stable, with the mainstream price of 14.3 yuan / kg. The South China region fell 0.1 yuan / kg, the mainstream price of the two countries is 14.5 yuan / kg, Hainan 14 yuan / kg. Southwest fell 0.1 yuan / kg, Chuanxiong 15.1 yuan / kg. The legendary Jinjiuyin Ten is also the case. The short-term price has no favorable support. The increase in the number of stalls is a fact. The slaughter enterprises are picking up pigs. The increase is not obvious. It is expected that the pig price will continue to fall.
Port spot stalemate, high price callback
Affected by news of the overall black atmosphere and policy supply, yesterday's coal futures retreated sharply. The main contract 01 closed at 635.6, and the 1-5 spread narrowed to 56.4. In the spot market, due to the impact of the upcoming 19th conference, some open pit mines in Shaanxi and Shanxi were shut down and production was reduced. Although Inner Mongolia released restrictions on pyrotechnics, the supply of production was still tight, and the coal price in Hangkou continued to rise. In terms of ports, the port coal price is at a high stalemate. Due to the high cost and the consideration of the risk in the long-term market, the enthusiasm of the traders is not high, and the downstream acceptance of the current high position is not high. Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal power Coal coal +0 to 702 yuan / ton.
On the news front, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice on the work of ensuring coal-fired oil and gas transportation. All provinces, municipalities and related enterprises should strengthen the dynamic monitoring and analysis of coal production and transportation needs, timely discover and coordinate the outstanding problems arising in the supply, and strive to ensure The stable supply of coal before and after the 19th National Congress.
The inventory of the northern ports fluctuated and rebounded. Among them, the daily average shipment volume of Qin port was 575,000 tons, the daily average railway volume was 660,000 tons, the port deposit was +8 to 5.62 million tons, and the Caofeidian port stock was -3 to 3.17 million tons. Tanggang Guotou Port Area inventory + 4 to 1.08 million tons.